The revenue of your future point of sale. Forecast before opening.
A Revenue Forecast study is the instrument that turns a location hunch into a defensible figure. SAD combines an on-site visit by a senior consultant and a quantitative model calibrated on 45 years of history — producing a reasoned low / central / high revenue range.
30-40 page report · Dedicated debrief · Delivered in 3 to 4 weeks.
Anonymised case
files analyzed
of proprietary history
delivery turnaround
The full report, opened up.
Not a screenshot: the chapters of the dossier, replayed here exactly as our models produce them. Navigate, read the figures, move the capture rate — this is what you will handle at the debrief.
The whole picture, at a glance
The first page answers the only question the committee has: how much, how confident, and why.
The site captures a residential and commuter double flow that is rare for this format. Priority one remains façade legibility from the northern axis.
- Signage visible from the structuring axis
- Lunch offer calibrated on office flow
- Continuous service on Saturdays (retail flow)
- Partner parking under 120 m away
Catchment area & demographics
Three isochrone rings computed on the real road network — not an as-the-crow-flies radius.
| Zone | Time | Pop. 2022 | Chg. / 2012 | Households | km² | Density |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zone 1 | 0 – 5 min | 18,400 | +6.2% | 8,900 | 3.1 | 5,935 |
| Zone 2 | 5 – 10 min | 41,700 | +3.8% | 19,200 | 14.6 | 2,856 |
| Zone 3 | 10 – 15 min | 63,500 | +1.4% | 27,800 | 48.2 | 1,317 |
| Total catchment area | 123,600 | +3.1% | 55,900 | 65.9 | 1,876 | |
Competition mapped
Exhaustive inventory across the zone, segmented by ticket and positioning, cross-read with e-reputation.
Moderate: only two players share the €25-35 ticket segment, both beyond 200 m.
| Competitor | Segment | Avg. ticket | Rating | Reviews | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Full service | €28 | 4.2 | 612 | 240 m |
| B | Quick service | €12 | 3.8 | 1,340 | 380 m |
| C | Full service | €34 | 4.5 | 208 | 520 m |
| D | Healthy | €17 | 4.1 | 95 | 610 m |
| E | Quick service | €11 | 3.4 | 2,100 | 780 m |
Reading: the €25-35 ticket is held by only two brands, one of them at 4.5/5 on just 208 reviews. The review density of the quick-service segment (3,440 combined) confirms substantial real footfall on the zone.
Two models, one consensus
Two independent estimates cross-check each other. Their gap is the measure of our confidence.
The rate used in the dossier (2.5%) is calibrated on comparable units from our reference library. Moving it shows what that assumption weighs — and why we document it.
Arbitration & recommendation
The last page commits the firm: an opinion, a risk level, and the levers that tip the case.
The project is viable: the balance between residential and commuter flows absorbs seasonality, and no player dominates the target segment. The success condition is operational, not commercial — the façade must be legible from the northern axis on day one.
impact of a ±15% variation in penetration rate on total revenue
- High signage on the northern axis from D-30
- Lunch offer under €15 to capture office flow
- Parking agreement with the adjacent car park
- Saturday opening aligned with retail flow
Bottom line : Median revenue of €1.24M, 33% of it carried by the Home Zone 1 flow.
The real dossier runs 30 to 40 pages: these five chapters are its backbone.
Request a quote within 24hA precise study,
anchored in the field.
We estimate the future revenue of a point of sale before opening by articulating two complementary registers that converge into a reasoned estimation model.
Qualitative · Field
A senior consultant spends a full day on site. They read the location, its commercial ecosystem, its real visibility and accessibility. They meet the project owner to understand the concept, positioning and operational tradeoffs.
Quantitative · Data
Our analysts model the catchment area, qualify population and jobs, measure flows and map competition. All data is geolocated and cross-referenced with our proprietary library.
Estimation
Convergence of both registers in a dual-approach estimation model: commercial equation (capacity × rotation × ticket) and market share against a proprietary library of comparable units.
The quantitative analysis sets the perimeter of potential. The qualitative visit arbitrates its value. This dual reading is what makes the estimate credible to your financial partners.
Six revenue sources.
Estimated one by one.
The revenue of a retail unit is not just its catchment area. Six revenue generators stack at the site, each with its own intensity, seasonality, and average ticket. Our analysts estimate each independently and then aggregate.
Residents
Resident population qualified by SEC, household structure, income — core potential for evenings and weekends.
Office jobs
Density of office jobs, administration, services — primary driver of lunch and weekday purchases.
Culture & outings
Cinemas, theatres, museums, cultural venues — feeds evening, weekend and event-driven flows.
Foot & vehicle traffic
Pedestrian counts, vehicle flows, transit ridership, surrounding parking.
Visitors & overnight stays
Hotel capacity, short-term rentals, seasonality — particularly material in tourist cities.
Students & youth
Higher education and secondary school populations nearby — natural target audience for many concepts.
Anchor stores, polarity of the street, coherence of the retail fabric. A street that draws its own destination traffic adds a layer of attractiveness that we estimate separately.
Two models.
One reasoned range.
Commercial equation
Capacity × Rotation × Ticket, distinct by consumption moment — lunch/dinner for restaurants, weekday/weekend for retail, season for hospitality. Calibrated on real performance of comparable units.
Market share
Proprietary library of comparable points of sale over 45 years. Each site is compared to sector, geographic and format references that anchor the estimate in reality and surface optimism bias.
Both models converge into a low / central / high range.
With its drivers and its brakes.
A revenue figure you can defend before an investment committee.
Five steps, one reading of the potential.
From order to delivery, in 3 to 4 weeks.
Site visit & client meeting
Senior consultant fieldwork: macro/micro accessibility, visibility, façade, pedestrian and vehicle flows, transit access, parking. Meeting with the project owner to align on concept and tradeoffs.
Catchment area definition
Sector-calibrated catchment modeling. Isochrones, proprietary comparable references, integration of structural urban projects.
Catchment qualification
Resident population, households, age brackets, SEC, income, demographic trends. Commuting jobs, tourism pressure. The objective: know who passes by and who consumes — weekday, weekend, lunch, dinner.
Competition mapping
Exhaustive inventory of direct and indirect competitors in the zone, segmented by ticket and positioning. E-reputation reading (ratings, reviews), measurement of real competitive pressure.
Potential revenue estimate
Convergence into the dual-approach estimation model. Delivery of a reasoned low / central / high range, drivers and brakes, operational recommendations. Dedicated debrief session.
A SAD study vs. a 'box-ticking' study
What you pay for elsewhere is not what you get with us.
- Automated extraction of public data
- Generic isochrone without real topology
- No proprietary sector reference
- No field visit or qualitative analysis
- Static PDF delivered without support
- Single-model estimate, no range
- 45 years of proprietary behavioral data
- Dual-approach estimation (equation + market share)
- On-site visit by a senior consultant (one day)
- 6 revenue generators estimated independently
- Sector-calibrated (restaurants, retail, fashion, sport…)
- Reasoned low / central / high range
- Dedicated debrief + operational recommendations
A use case for every decision-maker.
Independent project owner
Secure the business plan, convince the bank, sharpen the offer before opening.
Franchisee pre-signing
Complement the legal pre-contract disclosure with a quantified read of local potential before signing.
Network development lead
Arbitrate between candidate sites, calibrate revenue targets for a new unit.
Landlord / investor
Assess rental potential and the viability of a tenant on a given site.
"A dossier you can defend before your bank, your funding round, your investment committee."
Sector-calibrated. Precise across each.
Our model adapts to your sector dynamics — bi-modal for restaurants, weekly for retail, seasonal for hospitality.
Restaurants
Fast-food, traditional, healthy, bakery
3,200+ studiesFashion & textile
Ready-to-wear, footwear, luxury
1,800+ studiesGrocery / FMCG
Hyper, super, convenience
4,500+ studiesSport & leisure
Fitness, outdoor, culture
900+ studiesHealth & beauty
Pharmacy, optical, cosmetics
1,100+ studiesServices
Auto, banking, real estate
2,400+ studiesHospitality
Chains, boutique hotels
600+ studiesInternational
40+ countries, Middle East, Africa
800+ studies"SAD Marketing's revenue forecast allowed us to validate our opening project with a precision that reassured our investors. No other firm came close to this depth of predictive analysis."
Frequently asked questions about the Revenue Forecast
Tout ce que vous devez savoir sur nos solutions.
What is a revenue forecast study?
Difference between a revenue forecast and a Local Market Assessment (LMA)?
How is the forecast's accuracy verified?
How long does it take to deliver the study?
What does a revenue forecast cost?
What data do you use?
Is the study defensible to my bank and investors?
Are you calibrated for my sector?
What happens after the report is delivered?
Do you operate internationally?
Request your quote within 24h
Sector, target surface, location — a brief exchange is enough for us to send you a personalized proposal.